Nifty is set to open lower this morning. The reason is oil, and the crisis in the oil market has not eased. That said, oil prices are down about 2% right now.

Even after that dip, Brent closed Friday at $103.87 a barrel — still 55.8% higher than a year ago.

Track government bond markets this week, especially the US and Japan. When governments have to pay more to borrow, money tends to move out of shares worldwide, and India feels it too.

The Middle East will be the talk of the week. The Strait of Hormuz is still shut, and last week the attacks reached Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline — the route built so oil would not need the strait.

The US and China are meeting this week. What comes out of it on trade matters for every market in Asia, India included.

The Russia–Ukraine war has escalated again. That adds a second war to the oil and gas story, on top of the Middle East.

Oil is being cornered from every side at once. Even America's emergency oil reserve fell to 298.7 million barrels in August, its lowest since January 1983.

We buy our oil in dollars. So a rise in oil and a fall in the rupee both land on the same bill.

Our rupee is weak at around 96 per dollar. Its weakest ever was 96.84, in May — we are close to that again.

A food crisis may be the next event in this chain. The pressure is on the supply side, and when fuel and freight cost more, so does everything that has to be moved.

Observe the market. This is the time to wait and watch.

The bears are having their time. Let the bulls rest for a while.

Also this week: Saudi Arabia's oil output has fallen to its lowest since 1990.

Sagar U.S., Founder