Last night US market fell 2 percent. Crude went up again. Gold did nothing. Gift Nifty was also showing red. So everybody knew today market will open down. And it did open down. It made a low of 24,187. Then it turned green.

Now stop and see one thing. The open and the close are not the same thing. Open is made by people who just woke up and reacted to a market they were sleeping through. Close is made by people who watched the full day and now have to decide what to keep in their pocket overnight. Two very different things. But most of us read only the first one and get scared.

So do this yourself. Take one notebook. For next 10 days write only two numbers, open and close. That's all. No news, no reason, nothing else. After 10 days you will see with your own eyes how many times a bad open ended in a normal close. And how many times the thing that scared you at 9:15 was still true at 3:30.

Also see the bigger picture. Whole July, market moved between 23,606 and 24,530. Today's low came somewhere in the middle. Not near the top, not near the bottom. So the fear was for a move which has not even happened.

One more thing keep in your mind. Crude went up on the same day US market fell. Normally both fall together. When they go different ways, one of them is seeing something the other is not seeing. It always comes out later.

Observe and wait.

— Sagar

This is commentary only. Nothing here is a buy/sell call or a recommendation — no derivatives, no positions suggested. For any personal investment decision, please consult a SEBI-registered adviser.